Price Trend shows whether a product's price has been going up, going down, or staying flat over the analyzed period. It filters out short-term promotional spikes to give you the true underlying direction.
What It Measures
This metric fits a trend line through the product's price history to determine the overall direction. Promotional spikes — sharp temporary price increases that quickly revert — are automatically excluded so they do not distort the trend.
The result tells you both the direction (rising, falling, or flat) and the magnitude of the change as a percentage.
Why It Matters for Resellers
The price trend directly affects your margins:
- A falling trend means the price you sell at tomorrow will likely be lower than today. If you buy inventory now, your future margins could shrink.
- A rising trend means margins may improve if you source at today's prices, but higher prices could also reduce demand.
- A flat trend gives you the most predictable margin calculations.
How We Calculate It
- We collect the product's price history over the available period.
- We detect and exclude promotional spikes — short-lived price increases that revert quickly.
- We fit a trend line through the remaining price data using real timestamps.
- We calculate the percentage change from the start to the end of the trend line.
- Changes greater than +5% are classified as "rising," less than -5% as "falling," and everything in between as "flat."
How to Read the Results
| Classification | What It Means | |---------------|---------------| | Rising | The price has been climbing. Margins may improve if you bought inventory at lower prices, but watch for demand dropping at higher price points. | | Falling | The price has been declining. Your margins could shrink over time, so factor in the downward trend when calculating profitability. | | Flat | The price has been stable. This makes profit calculations more predictable and reduces the risk of margin erosion. |
A falling price trend means your future selling price may be lower than today. Factor the trend direction into your profit calculations before committing to inventory.
Limitations & Caveats
- The trend reflects the past, not the future. A rising trend can reverse, and a falling trend can bottom out. Use it as one input, not a prediction.
- Short-term promotional spikes are excluded. This is intentional — promos distort the underlying trend — but it means the trend may differ from what you see on a raw price chart.
- Very short price histories produce less reliable trends. A trend based on 2 weeks of data is much less meaningful than one based on 6 months.
- The +/-5% threshold means small price movements are classified as "flat." A product with a 4% decline over 6 months will show as flat, even though that may matter for thin margins.
Related Metrics
- Price Velocity — While price trend shows the overall direction, price velocity tells you if the movement is accelerating or slowing down.
- Price Position — Is the current price high or low relative to its own history?
- Race to Bottom — A falling price trend combined with increasing sellers may indicate a price war.